▲ Up
 
14:29 30-05-2015
MAIN Russian
About us On-line subscription
KazakhstanTajikistanUzbekistanKyrgyzstanTurkmenistanWorld
POLITICSBUSINESSINCIDENTSSOCIETYCULTURESPORTANALYSISSCIENCE
Economists downgrade forecasts for US growth

Bishkek (AKIpress) - U.S. business economists have sharply cut their growth forecasts for the April-June quarter and 2014, though they remain optimistic that the economy will rebound from a dismal first quarter.

A survey by the National Association of Business Economics, released Friday, found that economists expect, on average, growth of 3 percent at an annual rate in the second quarter. That's down from 3.5 percent in a June survey. Growth in 2014 as a whole will be just 1.6 percent, they project, sharply below a previous forecast of 2.5 percent.

The lower 2014 forecast largely reflects the impact of a sharp contraction in the first quarter. The economy shrank 2.9 percent at an annual rate, the biggest drop in five years. That decline will weigh heavily on the economy this year, even if growth resumes and stays at 3 percent or above, as most economists expect.

The economists reduced their second-quarter forecast largely because they expect consumers spent at a much more modest pace. They now expect spending will grow just 2.3 percent at an annual rate in the second quarter, down from a 2.9 percent estimate in June. Spending rose just 1 percent in the first quarter, the smallest increase in four years, a sign consumers are still reluctant to spend freely.

The NABE did a special survey after the government announced the dismal figures at the end of June. The group typically surveys economists quarterly.

Despite the downgrades, the survey underscores that economists are mostly optimistic about the rest of this year. Analysts largely blame the first quarter shrinkage on temporary factors, such as harsh winter weather and a sharp slowdown in inventory restocking. When companies restock their inventories at a weaker pace, it slows demand for factory goods and lowers production.

Jack Kleinhenz, president of the association and chief economist at the National Retail Federation, said that most other recent economic data, particularly regarding hiring, has been positive. Employers have added an average of 230,000 jobs a month this year, one of the best stretches since the recession.

In addition, consumers are more confident and government spending cuts and tax increases are exerting less of a drag. In 2013, a Social Security tax cut expired and government spending cuts were implemented. The combined effects slowed growth by 1.5 percentage points, some economists estimate.

"Many of the fundamentals are there for growth," Kleinhenz said.

As a result, the 50 economists who responded to the survey see the chances of a recession this year or next as pretty low. Sixty percent said the odds were 10 percent or lower, and more than 90 percent said they were 25 percent or lower.


Twitterfacebookprint
14:09 11.07.2014
LATEST NEWS
18:09 Abducted $1.4 mln in cash in Batken still not found: police17:47 Blatter expected to win re-election despite FIFA corruption scandal17:46 Parliament Speaker meets with UK Ambassador as she completes her mission in Kyrgyzstan17:31 Authorities in Bishkek vow bio-waste cremation launch17:24 OSCE promotes good governance principles in Turkmenistan17:20 Authorities in Issyk-Kul to install 50 surveillance cameras across region prior to tourist season kick-off17:15 Country has good tax rates but administration system has outlived – MP17:10 Aksy district head denies selling of Unkur-Too mountain to Uzbekistan17:08 Kyrgyzaltyn Board of Directors approves new company's head17:07 Council of Heads of Governments of CIS signs number of documents in Kazakhstan16:58 Belarus ready to step up trade, economic cooperation16:51 President recommends to reconsider decision on electricity tariffs increase for population to 0.84 som per 1 kWh16:49 China land reclamation in South China Sea creates 'new facts': U.S.16:40 Sariyev urges Belarus to accelerate documents' ratification for Kyrgyzstan to join EEU16:33 Atambayev orders lifelong allowance for tallest man of Kyrgyzstan16:24 Kyrgyzstan asks Kazakhstan to speed up ratification of documents on country's EEU accession16:24 Kazakh president, Vietnam PM discuss coopertation16:11 Police detain members of organized crime group who robbed woman for almost 3,000,000 KGS16:06 Nazarbayev proposes extending highway from China to Russia's St. Petersburg16:00 Hundreds seek safety from Texas floods, severe weather kills 17
Astana
+21° C
Ashgabat
+39° C
Bishkek
+29° C
Dushanbe
+27° C
Tashkent
+33° C
exchange rates
 
63.71
58.15
9.43
1.10
203.76
185.95
30.00
3.53
6.88
6.27
1.01
0.13
2710.18
2512.73
405.44
50.01
3.84
3.50
0.56
0.07

© AKIpress News Agency - 2001-2015. All rights reserved
Republication of any material is prohibited without a written agreement with AKIpress News Agency. Any citation must be accompanied by a hyperlink to www.akipress.com.
Our address:
Moskovskaya str. 189, Bishkek, the Kyrgyz Republic
e-mail: english@akipress.org, akipressenglish@gmail.com;
Tel/Fax: +996(312)90-07-75